Manufacturing PMI® At 47.7%; February 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

TEMPE, Ariz. — March 1, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in January. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. In the last two months, the Manufacturing PMI® has been at its lowest levels since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.5 percent recorded in January. The Production Index reading of 47.3 percent is a 0.7-percentage point decrease compared to January’s figure of 48 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.3 percent, up 6.8 percentage points compared to the January figure of 44.5 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.1 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the January reading of 43.4 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction territory, registering 49.1 percent, down 1.5 percentage points from January’s 50.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 45.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.6 percent recorded in January; readings from the last three months are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the January reading of 50.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.9 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than January’s figure of 49.4 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 49.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points above the January reading of 47.8 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector again contracted, with the Manufacturing PMI® improving marginally over the previous month. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous nine months, the February composite index reading reflects companies continuing to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the second half of the year. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index still below 50 percent but continuing to improve, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at ‘too low’ levels, a positive for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index recovering for a third month but still in moderate contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 2.2-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index returned to contraction after two months of expansion, and the Production Index logged a third month in contraction territory. Panelists’ companies continue to indicate that they will not substantially reduce head counts, as sentiment is positive about the second half of the year, though slightly less so compared to January. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index expanded at a slower rate as panelists’ companies manage their total supply chain inventories. The Prices Index jumped back into ‘increasing’ territory after four consecutive months below 50 percent, supporting agreement between buyers and sellers to place orders in the near term.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in February.

“New order rates remain sluggish due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times; the index increase suggests progress in February. Panelists’ companies continue to attempt to maintain head-count levels through the projected slow first half of the year in preparation for a stronger performance in the second half. Eighty-two percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) is contracting, down from 86 percent in January. In February, fewer industries contracted strongly: The share of sector industries with a composite PMI®calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing sluggishness — was 10 percent, an improvement compared to 26 percent in January,” says Fiore.

The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in February are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 14 industries reporting contraction in February, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

“Good start to the year for bookings. Electronic components, specifically processors, continue to be challenging due to the risk of not hitting the commit dates, even with the extended lead times quoted.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“A slowdown in new housing construction and concerns of a slowing economy have customers delaying purchases in an effort to destock.” [Chemical Products]

“Sales remain solid, and most assembly plants are running at capacity. There is concern for the global supply chain now that we are restricting sales of some semiconductors to China.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Expect the first half of 2023 in the U.S. to be slower than the second half. Expect slower orders throughout 2023 for Europe.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Even though our number of quotes are down, we are still staying busy, and our backlog has a lot to do with it. A backlog of 30-plus weeks is not ideal.” [Machinery]

“Business and new orders are softening, and customers are pushing out current orders.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

“New orders are steady; production has been running consistently for several months. Many items remain in short supply (particularly anything electronics) and require daily monitoring to ensure supply.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“New orders are still strong; however, we continue to experience price increases (although at a slower rate than a year ago), which we have not accounted for in this year’s budget. Restoring lost margin due to cost increases is a top priority.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“We shipped some long-term backlogged orders, enabling some progress on our current backlog.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Business conditions are still strong; however, inventory has exceeded our planned levels. This will impact operations until the inventory situation is resolved.” [Primary Metals]

“While there are lingering concerns about a recession, we are not expecting a large drop-off in manufacturing this year. Worst case is flat.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (2)*; Copper (3); Electrical Components (4); Electronic Components; Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) Materials; Polyethylene; Polypropylene; Solvents; Steel*; Steel — Stainless; and Steel Products* (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (10)*; Corrugate (3); Corrugated Boxes (2); Freight (4); Lumber (2); Natural Gas (3); Ocean Freight (6); Pallets; Plastic Resins (9); Polyethylene; Steel* (10); Steel — Hot Rolled; and Steel Products* (8).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (29); Electronic Components (27); Hydraulic Components (10); Packaging Materials; Plastic Resins; Semiconductors (27); and Steel Products (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

FEBRUARY 2023 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the reading of 47.4 percent recorded in January. “This is the fourth month of slow contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, only one (the Inventories Index), was in growth territory, and just barely. For the last two months, the PMI® has registered its lowest levels since May 2020, when the index was at 43.5 percent. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two (Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products) registered strong growth in February. The Production Index logged a third month in contraction territory. Only three of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted in February for a third consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (47.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.3 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index contracted for the sixth consecutive month in February, registering 47 percent, an increase of 4.5 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 42.5 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported increased new orders. New orders contraction slowed as more buyers and sellers reached agreements due to improved lead times (as noted in panelists’ comments), as well as the potential for future price growth (as indicated by steel, aluminum and copper prices rising). Uncertainty regarding future demand continues to hold the index back from more significant improvement,” says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The three manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in February are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Twelve industries reported a decline in new orders in February, in the following order: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Production
The Production Index registered 47.3 percent in February, 0.7 percentage point lower than the January reading of 48 percent, indicating a third month of contraction after 30 consecutive months of growth. “Of the top six industries, only two — Machinery; and Transportation Equipment — expanded in February. Weak contraction in the Production Index continues to support manufacturing executives’ strategy to extend output during the first half of 2023, as panelists’ companies attempt to retain workers to prepare for better second-half performance. The index reached its lowest level since May 2020 (34.2 percent),” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The four industries reporting growth in production during the month of February are: Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The nine industries reporting a decrease in production in February — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 49.1 percent in February, 1.5 percentage points lower than the January reading of 50.6 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted after weak expansion in the previous two months and contraction in the three months before that. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only three (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment) expanded. Labor management sentiment at panelists’ companies still favors attempting to hire rather than reducing employment levels. Although layoffs continued in February, the hiring to reduction ratio among panelists’ comments was 2-to-1 (compared to 4-to-1 in the previous month). Many companies opted to maintain workforce levels to support projected second-half growth, but to a lesser degree compared to January. Turnover rates declined in the month. For those companies increasing their head counts, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported employment growth in February, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries reporting a decrease in employment in February are: Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Eight industries reported no change in employment in February compared to January.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a fifth straight month in February, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 45.2 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.6 percent reported in January. The last three readings indicate the fastest supplier delivery performance since March 2009, when the index registered 43.2 percent. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelist comments indicate that suppliers now have ideal capacity levels, as backlogs at suppliers get worked off due to an extended period of slowing new orders,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Four of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in February: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in February as compared to January — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 50.1 percent in February, 0.1 percentage point lower than the 50.2 percent reported for January. “Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slower rate compared to January. Of the six big manufacturing industries, two (Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) increased manufacturing raw material inventories in February. Manufacturing inventories continue to be effectively managed by panelists’ companies as they work down total supply chain inventories,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the nine reporting higher inventories in February — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The eight industries reporting contracting inventories in February — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 46.9 percent in February, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 47.4 percent reported for January. “Customers’ inventory levels are now at the higher end of the ‘too low’ level, as panelists’ companies continue to manage total supply chain inventories. February saw customer inventories return to accommodative levels for future output growth potential,” says Fiore.

Six industries reported customers’ inventories as too high in February, in the following order: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in February — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 51.3 percent, 6.8 percentage points higher compared to the January reading of 44.5 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased in February. The index ended a four-month period in “decreasing” territory preceded by 28 straight months of “increasing” status. “Panelists’ comments support a return to more balanced supplier-buyer relationships, as sellers are more interested in filling order books and buyers now see the need to reorder. Also, future price increases are apparent for foundational purchased materials in several sectors. Over the last two months, the Prices Index has risen 11.9 percentage points after decreasing 47.7 points between April and December 2022. Of the top six manufacturing industries, three (Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery) reported price increases in February. Panelists’ companies reporting ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices (75 percent in February, 82 percent in January), support buyers beginning to increase their new order rates,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In February, eight industries — in the following order — reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The six industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in February — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.1 percent in February, a 1.7-percentage point increase compared to January’s reading of 43.4 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the fifth consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two — Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment — expanded order backlogs in February. “Backlogs contracted again but at the slowest pace since November 2022, when the index registered 45.3. percent. We have now experienced three straight months of improving backlog contraction, likely due to improvement in new order rates and panelists’ companies better managing their outputs,” says Fiore.

Two industries reported growth in order backlogs in February: Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. Twelve industries reported lower backlogs in February, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

New Export Orders†
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 49.9 percent in February, 0.5 percentage point higher than the January reading of 49.4 percent. “The New Export Orders Index contracted in February for the seventh consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory. Comments supported an improvement in orders from China as well as surprising improvement from the eurozone. The index reported its best performance since July 2022 (52.6 percent),” says Fiore.

Four industries reported growth in new export orders in February: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in February — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.

Imports†
ISM®’s Imports Index registered 49.9 percent in February, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to January’s figure of 47.8 percent. “The index remained in contraction in February following a recent five-month period of expansion. Import performance improved during the month, contracting at a slower pace. Panelists’ comments indicate that the index reading reflects a combination of sluggish demand, as well as lingering effects from Lunar New Year,” says Fiore.

The four industries reporting an increase in import volumes in February are: Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Five industries reported lower volumes of imports in February: Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Nine industries reported no change in imports in February compared to January.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in February was 176 days, an increase of 10 days compared to January. Average lead time in February for Production Materials was 88 days, an increase of one day. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 43 days, an increase of two days.

Posted: March 2, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management

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